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走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第84部分

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s risk。
还记得我们前面讲过的例子吗?一个摆水果和蔬菜摊位的小生意人,每天能卖几框果蔬。如果他的批发商卖给他一框新鲜的珍奇水果呢?他可能会因此赚钱,但如果当地人不喜欢那种水果以至于那框水果全部坏掉的话,一框水果不会对他的买卖造成很大的伤害。那是一种正常的商业风险。
Now imagine he bought a tractor…trailer of that fruit at a super low price。 If it sold; he could make a quick killing; but if that load rotted on him; it would hurt his business and could endanger his survival。 A crate presented an acceptable risk; but a truckload was a rotten risk。 The difference between a businessman’s risk and a loss is its size relative to the size of your account。
现在想象一下,他以极低的价格买了一卡车那种水果。如果他把它们都卖掉了,他就可以大赚一笔,但如果没有卖掉而是坏掉了,就会严重伤害到他的生意,可能使他无法做下去了。一框代表着一个可以接受的风险,但一卡车就是一个致命的风险。生意人的风险和亏损和你的风险和亏损差别是账户的大小。
A businessman’s risk exposes you to normal equity fluctuation; but a loss threatens your prosperity and survival。 You must draw a line between them and never cross it。 Drawing that line is a key task of money management。
生意人的风险和亏损说明了你的账户处于正常的资金波动中,但一个亏损就会威胁到你的生存与发展。你必须在二者之间画一条线,永远不要跨过那条线。画那条线是资金管理的一项关键任务。
Whenever you buy a stock and place a stop under it; you limit your dollar risk per share。 Money management rules limit your total risk on any trade as a whole; allowing you to risk only a small percentage of your account。 If you know your maximum permitted risk per trade as well as your risk per share or contract; it is a matter of simple arithmetic to calculate how many shares or contracts you may trade。
无论你什么时候买进一只股票并在下面设置一个止损,你都要限制每股的风险值。资全管理原则作为一个整体,限制你在任何交易中的总风险,使你的账户中只有比例很小的一部分处于风险中。如果你知道每笔交易,以及每股或每份合约你的最大允许风险,那么计算你应该交易多少股或多少份合约就是一个简单的算术问题了。
Money management rules are essential for your survival and success。 Few traders have the discipline to follow them。 Promises are easy to make while reading a book; but wait until you are in front of the screen。 “This time is different; it’s free money; I’ll give this trade a little extra room。” The market seduces traders into breaking their rules。 Will you follow yours?
资金管理原则对于你的生存和成功都是很关键的。很少有交易者能够严格遵守它们。在读一本书时,许诺是很容易的,但你坐在屏幕前就不一样了。“这次不同,这是闲置的资金,我要给这次交易一点额外的收入。”市场引诱交易者们打破自己的原则。你会遵守自己的原则吗?
I was recently invited to chair a panel on market psychology at a gathering of money managers。 One of my panelists had nearly a billion dollars under management。 A middle aged man; he started in business in his 20s; while working for a naval consulting firm after graduate school。 Bored with his job; he designed a trading system but did not have enough money to trade it because it required a minimum of 200;000。 “I had to go to other people;” he said; “and ask them for money。 Once I explained to them what I was going to do and they gave me money; I had to stick to my system。 It would have been unconscionable to deviate from it。 My poverty worked for me。” Poverty and integrity。
最近我受邀在一个基金经理聚会上做一个市场心理学的主持。我的一个小组成员管理的资金接近十亿。他是一个中年人,从20 多岁时开始经商,从学校毕业后就在一个海洋咨询公司工作。厌倦了自己的工作以后,他设计了一个交易系统。但当时没有足够的资金交易,因为那最少需要200000元。“我不得不去找别人,”他说,“向他们借些钱。我向他们解释我要做什么,一旦他们把钱给我,我就坚持遵守我的系统。偏离它就是非常不合理的。我的贫困帮助了我。”贫困和正直。
If you want to trade; you have to accept risks。 A nitpicker; obsessing over dimes; is too stiff to place orders。 While you accept risks; you may not accept losses。 What is the definition of a loss?
如果你想交易,就必须承担风险。一个连一毛钱都舍不得亏的人,因太过拘谨而不能下单。虽然你愿意接受风险,但你不愿意接受亏损。亏损的定义是什么呢?
A loss is a violation of the percentage rules … the 2% and the 6% Rules。 
亏损就是违反了2%原则和6%原则。
Markets kill traders in one of two ways。 If your equity is your life; a market can snap it with a single shark bite; a disastrous loss that effectively takes you out of the game。 It can also kill like a pack of piranhas; with a series of bites; none of which is lethal alone but which together strip an account to the bone。 These two money management rules are designed to protect you from the sharks and the piranhas。
市场淘汰交易者的方式有两种。如果你的资金是你的生命,市场可能像鲨鱼一样一口把它吞掉,一次惨重的损失就可以把你淘汰出局。市场也可能像食人鱼一样一口一口地把你咬死,每一口可能都不致命,但一直咬下去就会使你成为一堆白骨。下面两种资金管理原则就是用来帮助你防范鲨鱼和食人鱼的。
THE 2% SOLUTION … PROTECTION FROM SHARKS
2%解决方案——防鲨网
Ugly losses stick like sore thumbs out of most accounts。 Traders who review their records usually find that a single terrible loss or a short string of bad losses did most of the damage。 Had they cut their losses sooner; their bottom line would have been much higher。 Traders dream of profits but often freeze like deer in the headlights when a losing trade hits them。 They need rules that tell them when to jump out of harm’s way instead of waiting and praying for the market to turn。
痛苦的亏损那么显而易见。交易者在复习他们的交易记录时,常常会发现是一次可怕的亏损或者是一连串小亏损对他们造成了最大的伤害。要是他们抢先止损,他们的账户底线会高得多。交易者们梦想赢利,但是当亏损击中他们时,往往就不知所措了。他们需要原则来提醒自己何时应该跳出失利的交易,而不是盲目地等待和祈祷市场反转。
Good market analysis alone will not make you a winner。 The ability to find good trades will not guarantee success。 No amount of research will do you any good unless you protect yourself from the sharks。 I’ve seen traders make 20; 30; and once even 50 profitable trades in a row; and still end up losing money。 When you’re on a winning streak; it’s easy to feel you’ve figured out the game。 Then a disastrous loss wipes out all profits and tears into your equity。 You need the shark repellent of good money management。
仅有好的市场分析,也不能使你成为赢家。能找到好交易并不能保证成功。大量的研究不会给你带来任何好处,除非你可以保护自己不受鲨鱼的突袭。我曾经看过交易者连续做了20、30甚至50 笔交易,但仍以亏损告终。当你连续赢利时,还容易认为自己已经了解了这种游戏。然后,一次惨重的亏损扫光了你所有的利润,摧毁了你的账户。你需要可以击退鳖鱼的有效的资金管理。
A good system gives you an edge in the long run; but there is a great deal of randomness in the markets; and any single trade is close to a toss…up。 A good trader expects to be profitable by the end of the year; but ask him whether he’ll make money on his next trade and he’ll honestly say he doesn’t know。 He uses stops to prevent losing trades from hurting his account。
从长远来看,一套优秀的系统会给你带来一定的优势,但市场中充满了大量的随机性,任何单笔交易的成败都是难以预料的。优秀的交易者期待在年终时赢利,但问他下一次交易时是否会赚钱,他会诚实地回答:不知道。他利用止损来防止亏损的交易,避免伤害到自己的账户。
Technical analysis helps you decide where to place a stop; limiting your loss per share。 Money management rules help you protect your account as a whole。 The single most important rule is to limit your loss on any trade to a small fraction of your account。
技术分析帮助你决定在何处止损,以限制你每股的损失。资金管理原则帮助你保护整个账户。一个最重要的原则是每次交易的损失限制到只占你账户的一小部分。
Limit your loss on any trade to 2% of equity in your trading account。 
限制每笔交易的损失是你账户净资金的2%。
The 2% Rule refers only to your trading account。 It doesn’t include your savings; equity in your house; retirement account; or money in the Christmas club。 Your trading capital is the money you have dedicated to trading。 This is your true risk capital; your equity in the trading enterprise。 It includes cash and cash equivalents in the account; plus today’s market value of all open positions。 Your system should make you money; while the 2% Rule lets you survive the inevitable drawdowns。 
2%原则仅指你的交易账户。它不包括你的存款、家中的财产、退休金账户或者圣诞储蓄。你的交易资金指的是决定用于交易的资金。这是你真正的风险资金,你在证券公司的资金。它包括账户中的现金和保证金,以及今天仓位的市场价值。你的系统应该为你赚钱,而2%原则让你从不可避免的损失中幸存。
Suppose you’re trading a 50;000 account。 You want to buy XYZ stock; currently trading at 20。 Your profit target is 26; with a stop at 18。 How many shares of XYZ you are allowed to buy? Two percent of 50;000 is 1;000; the maximum risk you may accept。  Buying at 20 and putting a stop at 18 means you’ll risk 2 per share。 Divide the maximum acceptable risk by the risk per share to find how many shares you may buy。 Dividing 1;000 by 2 gives you 500 shares。 This is the maximum number; in theory。 In practice; it has to be lower because you must pay missions and be prepared to be hit by slippage; all of which must fit under the 2% limit。 So; 400 rather than 500 shares is the upper limit for this trade。
假设你的交易账户有50000元。你想买XYZ 股票,当前市价为20元。你的赢利目标是26 元,止�
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