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falling EMA and cover when the market bees undervalued … at or below the lower channel line。
上涨的时候,我们希望在均线附近买入,在市场高估的时候兑现利润——或在超过通道上线的地方。下跌的时候,我们希望在均线附近做空,在市场低估的时候回补——或在低于通道下线的地方。
Figure 5。7 Channels for Profit Taking
图5。7 用通道兑现利润
When the EMA rises; it identifies an uptrend。 It is a good idea to buy near that EMA or slightly higher or lower; depending on the stock’s recent behavior。 At point A; EMA stands at 35; while the low point of the bar reaches 33 … a 2…point downside penetration。 At point C; the price low penetrates the EMA by 1 point; at D by 2。25; at F by 4; at point H by 0。75; and at J by 4。 Those short…term bottoms keep alternating between shallow and deep … an important piece of intelligence when you try to decide where to place your buy order。 If the latest penetration was shallow; expect the next one to be deep; and vice versa; and place your buy orders accordingly。
当均线上涨时,它确认了上涨趋势。在均线附近买入,或者根据股票最近的行为高一点或者低一点买入都不错。在A点,均线是35,最低价是33——下穿了2点。在C点,最低价穿过均线1点,在D点是2。25,F点是4,H点是0。75,J点是4。这些短期的底部总是在深浅的地方出现——如果你决定了在这些地方下单买入,这些是很重要的信息。如果最近一次的穿过是浅的,下一次就是深的,反过来也是一样,可以根据这个下单买入。
The place to sell stocks purchased near the EMA is at the upper channel line。 Looking back; it is easy to see that buy…and…hold would have worked even better in TARO; but the future is not nearly as clear at the right edge of the chart。 Buying value near the EMA and taking profits above value; near the upper channel line; is safer and more reliable。 Stock bought at A can be sold at B; bought again at C or D and sold at E; and so on。
在均线附近买入的股票,如果要卖出,位置是在通道的上线。回头看,TARO股票的买点和持有区域都不错,但是图右边的未来是没有这么清楚的。在均线附近买入,在均线之上卖出,靠近通道上线的地方,这个方法是安全可靠的。在A点买入股票,可以在B点卖出,在C点或D点再次买入,在E点卖出,以此类推。
A trader can grade his performance; based on the percentage of the channel he takes in profits on any given trade。 For example; at the right edge of the chart; the upper channel line stands at 97 and the lower at 69; making the channel 28 points high。 An A trader should get the minimum of 30% or 8。4 points out of the next trade; a B trader 20% or 5。6 points; and a C trader 10% or 2。8 points。
无论什么交易,交易者可以利用取得通道的比例来给自己的交易打分。比如,在图的右边,通道上线是97,下线是69,通道的高度就是28。A交易者赚到30%,或者是8。4点;B交易者赚到20%,或者是5。6点;C交易者赚到10%,或者是2。8点。
At the right edge of the chart; prices are hitting the upper channel line。 It is time to take profits on stocks purchased in area J; near the EMA; and wait for a pullback。
在图的右边,价格达到上线了,此时最好把在J点买的股票卖掉,等股票回调。
If you buy near a rising moving average; take profits in the vicinity of the upper channel line。 If you sell short near a falling moving average; cover in the vicinity of the lower channel line。 Channels catch swings above and below value but not major trends。 Those swings can be very rewarding。 If you can catch a move from the EMA to the channel line in bond futures; you’ll make about 2;000 in profit on a 2;000 margin。 If you can do this a few times a year; you’ll find yourself far ahead of many professionals。
如果你在均线附近买入,就在通道上线附近卖出。如果你在均线附近做空,就在通道下线附近回补。通道可以抓住价值附近的波动,但不能抓住主趋势。这些波动也会带来很大的回报。如果你做债券,利用均线和通道线,2000元的保证金能赚到2000元。如果你一年就做几次,你会发现你比很多专业人士还强。
A beginner who sells his position near the upper channel line may regret it several weeks later。 In a bull market; what looks overvalued today may look like a bargain the next month。 Professionals do not let such feelings bother them。 They are trading; not investing。 They know it’s easy to be smart looking at old charts; but hard to make decisions at the right edge。 They have a system; and they follow it。
新手在通道上线附近平仓,几周后可能会后悔。在上涨的市场,现在看起来高估,下个月可能就变便宜了。专业人士不会让这样的感觉困扰自己。他们是交易,不是投资。他们知道事后诸葛亮容易,但当时就很难做决定。我们有系统,他们追随系统。
When prices blow out of a channel but then return to the moving average; trade in the direction of the slope of that MA; with a profit target near the channel line。 Prices break out of channels only during the strongest trends。 After they pull back; they often retest the extremes of those breakouts。 A breakout from a channel gives us confidence to trade again in its direction。
当价格破了通道,然后回到均线时,顺着均线的角度进场交易,目标利润定在通道线。价格只在最强的时候冲破通道。当它们回来后,它们经常会再次测试之前的突破。冲破通道的突破给了我们信心,我们可以再次交易。
Prices occasionally take off on wild runaway trends。 They break out of a channel and stay out for a long time; without pulling back to their EMA。 When you recognize such a powerful move; you have a choice: stand aside or switch to a system for trading impulse moves。 Professional traders; once they find a technique that works for them; tend to stay with it。 They’d rather miss a trade than change to an unfamiliar style。
价格偶尔会狂奔而去。它们冲破通道以后,长时间不回到均线。如果你发现了这么强劲的波动,你有一个选择:观望或者换一个可以捕捉大波动的系统。专业人士只要找到了适合自己的技术,一般会坚持使用。他们宁愿错过交易,也不愿换个不熟悉的方式。
If a moving average is essentially flat; go long at the lower channel line; sell short at the upper channel line; and take profits when prices return to their moving average。 The upper channel line marks an overbought zone。 If the market is relatively flat on long…term charts; rallies to the upper channel line then provide shorting opportunities; whereas declines to the lower channel line provide buying opportunities。 Professionals tend to trade against deviations and for the return to normalcy。 Amateurs think that every breakout will be followed by a massive runaway move。 Once in a rare while the amateurs are right; but in the long run it pays to bet like the pros。 They use channels to find when the market has outrun itself and where it is likely to reverse。
如果均线几乎是水平的,在通道下线做多,在通道上线做空,在价格回到均线时兑现利润。通道上线表明是超买区。如果从长期图来看,市场是横盘,反弹到通道上线就提供了做空的机会,下跌到通道下线就提供了买入机会。专业人士喜欢逆波动操作就是为了让它回到正常。业余选手以为每个突破都伴随着超大波动。偶尔业余选手对了,但长期来看,还是专业人士强。他们用通道来寻找市场的过分之处,看看是否会发生反转。
How to Grade Your Performance Imagine two friends taking a college course。 Both have similar abilities and backgrounds; but one takes a test each week; while the other waits for a final。 All other factors being equal; which of them is likely to get a higher grade on the exam? The one who waited or the one who took weekly tests?
如何给自己打分 想象2个大学朋友。2人有相似的能力和背景,但其中一个每周考试一次,另外一个期末才考试。其它因素都是一样的,他们中的哪一个有可能考试时得高分?等期末考试的,或者是每周都考试的?
Most educational systems test students at regular intervals。 Testing prompts people to fill the gaps in their knowledge。 Students who take tests throughout the year tend to do better on their finals。 Frequent tests help improve performance。
大部分教育系统每隔一段时间给学生举行一次考试。考试能帮助人们弥补知识空缺。在一年内不断参加测试的学生在期末考试时会表现的比较好。频繁的测试能提高成绩。
Markets keep testing us; only most traders don’t bother to look up their grades。 They gloat over profits or trash confirmation slips for losing trades。 Neither bragging nor beating yourself makes you a better trader。
市场在不停地测试我们,但是大多数交易者都不知道去看看自己的成绩。有利润时他们贪婪,亏损时他们把交易确认单当垃圾扔了。吹牛和自我惩罚都不能让你成为好的交易者。
The market grades every trade and posts results on a wall; only most traders have no clue where to look。 Some count money; but that’s a very crude measure; which does not pare performance in different markets at different prices。 You may take more money from a sloppy trade in a big expensive market than from an elegant entry and exit in a difficult narrow market。 Which of them reveals a higher level of skill? Money is important but it doesn’t always provide the best measure of success。
市场给每笔交易打分,并贴在墙上,只是大部分交易者不知道去哪里看。一些人数自己的钱,但这个方法太原始,无法给不同的市场和不同的价格打分。你也许在昂贵的市场赚的钱比在狭窄的市场赚得钱多。哪个反映了你的水平高低呢?钱很重要,但不是最好的计算成功的方法。
Channels help us grade the quality of our trades。
通道能帮助我们给自己的交易质量打分。
When you enter a trade; measure the height of the channel from the upper to the lower line。 If you use daily charts to find trades; measure the daily channel; if you use a 10…minute chart; measure the channel on a 10…minute chart; and so on。 When you exit that trade; calculate the number of points you’ve taken as a percentage of the channel。 That is your performance grade。
当你交易时,计算通道上线和下线之间的距离。如果你用日�