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waged； not for honor and glory； nor for thrones and sceptres； but for
dollars and cents and for marts and exchanges。 Brain and not brawn will
endure； and the captains of war will be commanded by the captains of
industry。 In short； it will be a contest for the mastery of the world's
commerce and for industrial supremacy。
It is more significant； this struggle into which we have plunged； for the
fact that it is the first struggle to involve the globe。 No general movement
of man has been so wide…spreading； so far…reaching。 Quite local was the
supremacy of any ancient people； likewise the rise to empire of
Macedonia and Rome； the waves of Arabian valor and fanaticism； and the
mediaeval crusades to the Holy Sepulchre。 But since those times the planet
has undergone a unique shrinkage。
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The world of Homer； limited by the coast…lines of the Mediterranean
and Black seas； was a far vaster world than ours of today； which we weigh；
measure； and compute as accurately and as easily as if it were a child's
play…ball。 Steam has made its parts accessible and drawn them closer
together。 The telegraph annihilates space and time。 Each morning； every
part knows what every other part is thinking； contemplating； or doing。 A
discovery in a German laboratory is being demonstrated in San Francisco
within twenty…four hours。 A book written in South Africa is published by
simultaneous copyright in every English…speaking country； and on the day
following is in the hands of the translators。 The death of an obscure
missionary in China； or of a whiskey…smuggler in the South Seas； is served；
the world over； with the morning toast。 The wheat output of Argentine or
the gold of Klondike are known wherever men meet and trade。 Shrinkage；
or centralization； has become such that the humblest clerk in any
metropolis may place his hand on the pulse of the world。 The planet has
indeed grown very small； and because of this； no vital movement can
remain in the clime or country where it takes its rise。
And so today the economic and industrial impulse is world…wide。 It is
a matter of import to every people。 None may be careless of it。 To do so is
to perish。 It is become a battle； the fruits of which are to the strong； and to
none but the strongest of the strong。 As the movement approaches its
maximum； centralization accelerates and competition grows keener and
closer。 The competitor nations cannot all succeed。 So long as the
movement continues its present direction； not only will there not be room
for all； but the room that is will become less and less； and when the
moment of the maximum is at hand； there will be no room at all。
Capitalistic production will have overreached itself； and a change of
direction will then be inevitable。
Divers queries arise： What is the maximum of commercial
development the world can sustain？ How far can it be exploited？ How
much capital is necessary？ Can sufficient capital be accumulated？ A brief
resume of the industrial history of the last one hundred years or so will be
relevant at this stage of the discussion。 Capitalistic production； in its
modern significance； was born of the industrial revolution in England in
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War of the Classes
the latter half of the eighteenth century。 The great inventions of that period
were both its father and its mother； while； as Mr。 Brooks Adams has
shown； the looted treasure of India was the potent midwife。 Had there not
been an unwonted increase of capital； the impetus would not have been
given to invention； while even steam might have languished for
generations instead of at once becoming； as it did； the most prominent
factor in the new method of production。 The improved application of these
inventions in the first decades of the nineteenth century mark the transition
from the domestic to the factory system of manufacture and inaugurated
the era of capitalism。 The magnitude of this revolution is manifested by
the fact that England alone had invented the means and equipped herself
with the machinery whereby she could overstock the world's markets。 The
home market could not consume a tithe of the home product。 To
manufacture this home product she had sacrificed her agriculture。 She
must buy her food from abroad； and to do so she must sell her goods
abroad。
But the struggle for commercial supremacy had not yet really begun。
England was without a rival。 Her navies controlled the sea。 Her armies and
her insular position gave her peace at home。 The world was hers to exploit。
For nearly fifty years she dominated the European； American； and Indian
trade； while the great wars then convulsing society were destroying
possible competitive capital and straining consumption to its utmost。 The
pioneer of the industrial nations； she thus received such a start in the new
race for wealth that it is only today the other nations have succeeded in
overtaking her。 In 1820 the volume of her trade （imports and exports） was
68；000；000 pounds。 In 1899 it had increased to 815；000；000 pounds；… …an
increase of 1200 per cent in the volume of trade。
For nearly one hundred years England has been producing surplus
value。 She has been producing far more than she consumes； and this
excess has swelled the volume of her capital。 This capital has been
invested in her enterprises at home and abroad； and in her shipping。 In
1898 the Stock Exchange estimated British capital invested abroad at
1；900；000；000 pounds。 But hand in hand with her foreign investments
have grown her adverse balances of trade。 For the ten years ending with
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War of the Classes
1868； her average yearly adverse balance was 52；000；000 pounds； ending
with 1878； 81；000；000 pounds； ending with 1888； 101；000；000 pounds；
and ending with 1898； 133；000；000 pounds。 In the single year of 1897 it
reached the portentous sum of 157；000；000 pounds。
But England's adverse balances of trade in themselves are nothing at
which to be frightened。 Hitherto they have been paid from out the earnings
of her shipping and the interest on her foreign investments。 But what does
cause anxiety； however； is that； relative to the trade development of other
countries； her export trade is falling off； without a corresponding
diminution of her imports； and that her securities and foreign holdings do
not seem able to stand the added strain。 These she is being forced to sell in
order to pull even。 As the London Times gloomily remarks； 〃We are
entering the twentieth century on the down grade； after a prolonged period
of business activity； high wages； high profits； and overflowing revenue。〃
In other words； the mighty grasp England held over the resources and
capital of the world is being relaxed。 The control of its commerce and
banking is slipping through her fingers。 The sale of her foreign holdings
advertises the fact that other nations are capable of buying them； and；
further； that these other nations are busily producing surplus value。
The movement has become general。 Today； passing from country to
country； an ever…increasing tide of capital is welling up。 Production is
doubling and quadrupling upon itself。 It used to be that the impoverished
or undeveloped nations turned to England when it came to borrowing； but
now Germany is competing keenly with her in this matter。 France is not
averse to lending great sums to Russia； and Austria…Hungary has capital
and to spare for foreign holdings。
Nor has the United States failed to pass from the side of the debtor to
that of the creditor nations。 She； too； h